Journey to the Bottom of the Earth

On February 28, 2013, I and members of the expedition team 2041 will embark on a mission to the bottom of the earth - one of the planets last wild lands, Antarctica. The team will be led by Robert Swan (OBE), as we embark on a Voyage for Cleaner Energy, and we draw attention to the year 2041, the year in which the Antarctic Treaty (Madrid Protocol) comes up for debate. This agreement has placed a ban on mining and mineral exploration for 50 years (1991-2041) and it designates the continent as "a Natural Reserve Land for Science and Peace". 

What is a Nigerian doing all the way in Antarctica you might ask? Well, having a long coastline, my country is not immune to the effects of climate change. It is also the largest oil producer in Africa, and the 8th largest in the world, which kinda means my country, is totally dependent on fossil fuel energy. Herein lies the problem, the mad rush for oil has totally destroyed large areas of ecosystems making it almost impossible for local people to sustain themselves off the land. 

Worst hit are those in the particularly fragile systems of the Niger-Delta, they have been worst hit by the rogue exploration and exploitation that has left its waterways polluted and unable to sustain any kind of life. Parts of this region leads to the country's coastline, unfortunately they are in store for a double whammy. With the increasing water levels accelerated by...wait for it..."melting polar-ice caps", these people will be stuck in a catch 22 situation with nowhere else to go. 

The change in climatic conditions have a varying effect in the northern part of the country, social-economic needs coupled with less rainfall is turning large areas of the northern region into a dessert waste land.

So my journey/adventure may be far away, but my mission and goal is very much closer to home. To raise global awareness on the plight of fragile ecosystems, and to call for collective action on the need for increased use of energy from renewable sources. I want to draw attention to the effects of climate change and call for a whole new approach to be adopted into drafting National, Regional, and Global Energy Policies. One which puts the use of renewables at its fore front, and creates and implements provisions for communities in which the energy is sourced from. 

Like parts of my homeland, Antarctica's ecosystem is also fragile, and global attention on it remains primarily because of the energy potentials it possess when/if the ice-caps totally melt away. This might be Uhuru for some oil/energy companies, but to the rest of the world it is disastrous future scenario we will all do well not to see. 

As a young person, my generation will be the first to witness such a scenario, so I am determined to play an active role in shaping "The Future I Want".

The Future I Don’t Want

Recently there has been a lot of advocacy and movement from groups pushing for the voices of young people to be heard at this year’s Rio+20 Earth Summit. The objective has been simple; let young people decide on the future they want to be a part of. That last sentence has been a driving force and a largely determining factor in choosing my career path. From being a starry eyed youth working as a civil-servant under the National Environment Agency, to an International Energy and Environment Development Centre, I was determined to help shape my world. The problem is, the world wasn’t changing fast enough.

My part of the world is Africa, to be more specific Nigeria. Host to over a 160 million people and with an abundance of mineral resources that would make even the industrialized nations cringe with envy, Nigeria is plagued with the blessing of the “Black Gold”. A commodity highly sort the world over it has become both a blessing and a curse. Gross mismanagement of key development sectors like agriculture and other mineral resources has left the country hanging by the thread of a mono-economy – oil.

Currently Nigeria produces about 1,500 MW of power, at full capacity it would produce about 6,000MW – pittance compared to the about 22,000 MW of power the nation needs to attain its development goals. The consequence? Highly unstable, and epileptic power supply resulting in the shutting up of businesses, and leading to the loss of livelihood.

The nation now runs almost entirely on diesel and petrol powered generators to meet its energy needs. At a time the planet is faced with the challenge of reversing from its near tipping point of carbon emissions to ensuring sustainable development, Nigeria is stuck in a catch 22 situation. It needs to meet its urgent energy demands so it utilizes fossil fuel powered generators, a resource that is mined from the now environmental catastrophe area called the Niger-Delta.

Internationally renowned energy companies pay zero regard for eco-systems and biodiversity, poisoning the very soil that local people need to survive. Further more, the nation is forced to import its own crude oil from foreign refineries, due to its inability to refine its own crude. Equally frightening is the stark reality that our prized asset, oil, is a finite resource with conservative estimates giving another 25-30 years for the oil reserves to dry up.

With very little concern given to alternative energy resources, and the poor state of energy infrastructure, Nigeria runs the grave risk of running into a new kind of energy and economic slavery by 2040. With its entire economy tied to a diminished fossil fuel resource and its inability to invest in alternative energy, it is now dependent on other more visionary nations for energy and economic assistance. Locked in a perpetual cycle of having to borrow to pay for the energy it gets from the new-world/clean energy brokers, it would forever be at the mercy of the administering nation or body.

So when you see me go to Rio+20 to engage world leaders on the delivery of sustainable development centered agreements, or join an eco-club, take part in a “we are the world” type concert with a rock band, or work with pressure groups in my home country to urge government action and policy development concerning sustainable development, I do it with the edge of a person who has a little more at stake, and a lot to lose. I am unwilling to see the current pace of inter-governmental action on sustainable development continue.

Indeed, I am connected to a larger world, and the winners would always lose if the losers don’t win. I have seen large parts of a possible future, a future I do not want, and I am willing to engage the process to correct it.

Why the world went South

Over 193 United Nations member states attended the Conference of Parties conference on Climate Change tagged COP 17 in Durban, South Africa. The end-game was simple, how to agree on a document that supersedes the Kyoto protocol which expires in 2012. How did we get to this point? The COP in 1997 agreed on a document called the Kyoto Protocol, which sets out guidelines in which nations make strong but voluntary commitments to reducing their Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. Part of the guidelines stipulate that big carbon emitters like the U.S, Australia, Canada and the Euro zone make stricter commitments to cutting down their own green house gas emissions. While some countries termed as “Developing” mostly in the BRIC such as China and India, were given a little more leeway in their own emission reduction obligations.

Here lies the crux of the matter as the U.S immediately refused to ratify the agreement. Claiming it would not be a part of any agreement that does not hold China responsible for its own GHG emissions. It is important to note that though at the time the U.S led as the world’s largest emitter, China, then termed as “Developing” was not far behind and currently leads as the worlds largest emitter (though the U.S still tops it on per capita emissions).
Thus then began the merry dance of modern day climate change negotiations. Since the Protocol was a voluntary agreement, nations are not bound to compliance. That in itself has also been a sticking point in climate negotiations, as some argue the need to have a legally binding agreement that forces countries to cut down their GHG emissions.

So while the egg-heads debate “dots” and “I”s at the COP, the present realities of climate change are becoming more evident for all to see. Vulnerable continents like Africa though low emitters by global standards bear the punishing brunt of its effects. The continents coastline might be unrecognizable in the next 50 years from present day due to rapidly increasing sea level rise from melting glaciers in the polar caps. Already Island countries around the world like Tuvalu have started drawing up evacuation measures. Nigerian cities along the coastline will be well advised to have an exit strategy against such a terrible scenario.

In Nigeria the effects of climate change have already begun to hit closer to home. As a veritable source of life and livelihood; the Lake Chad, has already shrunk to 35% of its original size since 1975 alone. Local farmers already complain that it is becoming increasingly difficult to ascertain when to begin their planting season as the weather has become increasingly unpredictable; this in itself an effect of climate change.

So what is Nigeria doing about it? Nigeria is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol and other Agreements, and is thus obligated to meet its responsibility in the stated Agreements. It has made some progress in meeting it obligations on the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and land Degradation), F.N.A (Financial Needs Assessment) and the National Adaptation Strategy Plan of Action (NASPA), but more can still be done. As efforts are being made to mitigate the effects of climate change, priority assistance should also be given to the most vulnerable in assisting to adapt to its immediate effects.

Nigeria’s House of Assembly has passed a bill on the creation of a National Climate Change Commission. The Commission is to be responsible for housing and providing a framework through which all climate change related issues are addressed in Nigeria.

The Honourable Minister of Environment Mailafia Hadiza was also bold in making this declaration to a global audience in Durban as part of Nigeria’s contribution to addressing climate change. But this Bill has been with the President for over a year now, awaiting his ascent and is still yet to be signed into law. Lets hope the President remains committed to implementing his own Transformation Agenda and ensuring sustainable development by signing the Bill.As we are well aware, the coastal areas which include many parts of the South-South region that houses’ Nigeria’s economic petroleum backbone will be well at risk of inundation.

Does the current deal made at Durban save the planet? Maybe not, but it is an important step in showing governments that the current diplomatic processes without a “Legal Force” are inadequate in curbing sustained CO2 rise in the future. It is also an opportunity for nations such as Nigeria to show leadership in taking control of its own destiny.